Genius Against the Spread
This story originally published on ScoutNFLNetwork.com
Arian Foster
Arian Foster
Cold, Hard Football Facts
Posted Sep 25, 2013


The Intelligence Index is Genius Against the Spread...

Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider with Scout.com breaks down every NFL game against the spread through the prism of our 22 cutting-edge Quality Stats. CHFF Insiders have gone .500 or better ATS in 72 percent of NFL weeks since the start of 2009. CHFF Insiders with Scout.com also get access to betting trends, key prop plays (9-2 in 2013), inside interviews with Vegas bookmakers and detailed team stat profiles. Become a CHFF Insider with Scout.com today. 

By Jonathan Comey

Cold, Hard Football Facts Einstein of Analysis

When we were looking at the Intelligence Index this offseason, we noted that the really impressive betting trends came from the dumbest teams, not the smartest ones.

So far this season the dumber end of the spectrum is living down to the hype. Sure, the six smartest teams in the NFL are 13-5 (.722) against the spread this year.

But as you can see from the latest Intelligence Index chart below, the true opportunity is betting against the teams on the bottom of the list.

  • The seven dumbest teams in football are 3-18 (.143) against the spread
  • The five dumbest teams in football are 1-14 (.067) against the spread

That’s a horrifying performance for those teams. It’s great news for you. Betting against these teams is where we see the money, and last week we were proven right big time with our three Intelligence Index mental mismatches:

  • Seattle (-19.5) vs. Jacksonville (huge number that was barely a sweat, even into garbage time)
  • Carolina (-1) vs. the Giants (the consensus was on the Giants in this one, but I.I. saw through it)
  • Dallas (-3.5_ vs. St. Louis (runaway Cowboys victory)

Three game identified. Three easy covers. In fact, these three Week 3 mental mismatches outlined by the Intelligence Index proved to be three biggest blowouts of Week 3 and three of the four biggest blowouts of the 2013 season.

Add to those games our Week 2 win (Cincy over Pittsburgh), and our mental mismatches are 4-0 against the spread (100 percent is considered pretty strong in betting circles, FYI).

And we've got three mismatches this week, highlighted below.

 

The Intelligence Index through Week 3

TEAM

BEND

SCORE

INT. INDEX

vs. Spread

Last Week

Seattle

26.48

13.24

+13.24

3-0

7

Kansas City

27.26

14.06

+13.2

2-1

1

Carolina

26.56

14.01

+12.55

1-2

6

New England

27.26

17.31

+9.95

1-2

13

Miami

21.06

12.95

+8.11

3-0

2

Dallas

18.6

12.59

+6.01

3-0

5

New Orleans

23.34

17.33

+6.01

2-1

14

Indianapolis

21.33

15.56

+5.77

1-2

12

Denver

15.38

10.27

+5.11

2-1

3

San Diego

17.43

13.83

+3.6

2-0-1

9

Baltimore

16.14

13.03

+3.11

2-1

26

Cincinnati

15.62

13.92

+1.7

2-0-1

25

Tennessee

16.5

15.48

+1.02

2-0-1

4

Buffalo

17.15

16.15

+1.0

2-1

17

Minnesota

13.43

12.46

+0.97

1-2

21

Detroit

15.91

15.02

0.89

2-1

18

Chicago

13.53

13.35

0.18

1-1-1

16

Green Bay

13.78

14.21

-0.43

1-2

10

Atlanta

15.2

16.01

-0.81

1-2

11

Philadelphia

15.29

17.53

-2.24

1-2

15

Oakland

17.4

19.78

-2.38

3-0

23

Washington

14.94

18.27

-3.33

0-3

24

Arizona

14.06

17.59

-3.53

2-1

19

St. Louis

13.71

17.57

-3.86

0-3

22

N.Y. Jets

16.2

20.64

-4.44

3-0

29

Cleveland

14.06

20.4

-6.34

1-2

31

Tampa Bay

18.12

24.88

-6.76

1-2

8

Pittsburgh

17.67

24.89

-7.22

0-3

30

Houston

9.11

16.64

-7.53

0-3

27

N.Y. Giants

9.97

18.59

-8.62

0-3

28

San Francisco

12.04

21.7

-9.66

1-2

20

Jacksonville

12.07

24.68

-12.61

0-3

32

PICKS OF THE WEEK

Seattle (-3) at Houston. This one is a slam dunk according to the Index. Seattle is No. 1 overall at +13.24 (and up from No. 7 last week), while Houston is -7.53 (29th, down two spots). Houston's lack of smarts wasn't in evidence last year, but Seattle was No. 1 last year as well and went 11-5 vs. the number. Until they play someone real smart, they're going to be a pick every week, and the Texans aren't that right now.

Kansas City (-5) vs. New York Giants. Another slam dunk. Based on how they've looked thus far, the Chiefs should probably be favored by double digits -- the Giants are shaping up as this year's version of the Eagles with a good reputation but a product that doesn't match. The Eagles went 4-12 vs. the spread last year, and we look for the Giants to go to 0-4 this Sunday.

Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville. This one is based more off Jacksonville's ineptitude than Indy's strength, but the Colts (+5.77, No. 8) are playing smart ball as well. Until the Jaguars show any sign of having their heads out of their asses (or receive a more favorable smarts matchup), they're money in the bank.

CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR

There are two more lesser mismatches this week, but we're not recommending them. Minnesota (+1) vs. Pittsburgh in London falls in the general parameters, with Pittsburgh -7.22 and Minnesota +0.97, but the Steelers are trending up a bit here and the England factor is enough to give it a pass.

The other is Cincinnati (-6) at Cleveland. The Bengals are smartish, the Browns are dumbish, but Cincy moved way up from dumb territory at 25 to 12 this week, and Cleveland was also on the rise. With the season still forming its skin, we'll pass on this one.

Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider with Scout.com breaks down every NFL game against the spread through the prism of our 22 cutting-edge Quality Stats. CHFF Insiders have gone .500 or better ATS in 72 percent of NFL weeks since the start of 2009. CHFF Insiders with Scout.com also get access to betting trends, key prop plays (9-2 in 2013), inside interviews with Vegas bookmakers and detailed team stat profiles. Become a CHFF Insider with Scout.com today. 

 





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