NFL Intelligence Index
This story originally published on ScoutNFLNetwork.com
Alex Smith
Alex Smith
Cold, Hard Football Facts
Posted Oct 2, 2013


NFL teams with “mental mismatches” move to 7-0 straight up and ATS...

NFL teams with “mental mismatches” move to 7-0 straight up and ATS

Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider with Scout.com breaks down every NFL game against the spread through the prism of our 22 cutting-edge Quality Stats. CHFF Insiders have gone .500 or better ATS in 72 percent of NFL weeks since the start of 2009. CHFF Insiders with Scout.com also get access to betting trends, key prop plays (9-2 in 2013), inside interviews with Vegas bookmakers and detailed team stat profiles. Become a CHFF Insider with Scout.com today. 

By Jonathan Comey

Cold, Hard Football Facts Einstein of Analysis

The success of the Intelligence Index as it correlates to who’s good and who’s not in the NFL is no big surprise. If you don’t do the little things well, you don’t win, and that’s the bottom line.

  • Top seven teams on the index: 23-4 overall, 18-9 (.667) ATS. Life is good.
  • Bottom seven teams on the index: 5-23 record overall. Startling 5-23 (.179) ATS. Misery everywhere.

The eight dumbest teams in the NFL this year are 5-27 (.156) ATS. These eight intellectual bottom dwellers include all five teams that are 0-4 ATS.

But we’re even a bit surprised just how well we’ve done using the Index to pick winners vs. the spread: we’ve picked seven games as "mental mistmatches." We’ve hit all seven games both straight up and against the spread. Tough to do better than that.

Last week, we had two more easy ones: Kansas City at home vs. the Giants (BUT THEY’RE DUUUUUUEEEEE!!!) and the Colts at Jacksonville (betting against the Jaguars is like printing money right now).

Our third pick, Seattle, did need some heroics to cover the -2.5 number in Houston (-3 when we first published last week's II update). But that game pointed out just how important it is to play smart situational football.

Houston piled up 476 yards of offense, at home, against a Seattle team that came up with only 270. The Texans were -1 on the turnover battle, but that’s certainly not enough to offset the yardage difference. Seems impossible that the Texans could lose given those numbers, but they did.

How? Seattle had all the hidden numbers: 175-2 edge in total return yards (including Richard Sherman’s pick-six). They also had 26 fewer penalty yards, and went 1-for-1 in the red zone while the Texans were 1-for-3.

Presto. Seahawks win.

The Intelligence Index through Week 4

TEAM

BEND

SCORE

INT. INDEX

vs. Spread

LW

Kansas City

29.88

13.62

+16.26

3-1

2

Seattle

25.55

12.93

+12.62

4-0

1

Carolina

26.56

14.16

+12.4

1-2

3

Indianapolis

24.1

14.24

+9.86

2-2

8

New England

24.28

16.51

+7.77

2-2

4

New Orleans

22.15

15.54

+6.61

3-1

7

Denver

17.15

10.79

+6.36

3-1

9

Tennessee

18.16

12.77

+5.39

3-0-1

13

Dallas

17.99

13.1

+4.89

3-1

6

Miami

17.37

14.16

+3.21

3-1

5

Chicago

13.47

11.09

+2.38

1-2-1

16

San Diego

16.95

14.68

+2.27

3-0-1

10

Baltimore

15.9

13.96

+1.94

2-2

11

Minnesota

14.01

12.19

+1.82

2-2

19

Detroit

15

13.27

+1.73

3-1

15

Buffalo

17.17

15.91

+1.26

3-1

14

Cincinnati

16.49

16.17

+0.32

2-1-1

12

Green Bay

13.78

14.21

-0.43

1-2

17

Atlanta

15.12

16.96

-1.84

1-3

18

Oakland

15.79

18.49

-2.7

3-1

21

Arizona

15.33

18.57

-3.24

3-1

23

Washington

14.94

18.27

-3.33

1-3

22

Cleveland

16.66

20.23

-3.57

2-2

26

San Francisco

12.62

16.77

-4.15

2-2

31

St. Louis

12.8

17.49

-4.79

0-4

24

Philadelphia

12.95

18.54

-5.59

1-3

20

Tampa Bay

18.99

24.98

-5.99

1-3

27

Pittsburgh

11.7

19.78

-8.08

0-4

28

Houston

9.69

18.23

-8.54

0-4

29

N.Y. Jets

12.86

21.54

-8.68

3-1

25

N.Y. Giants

10.53

21.34

-10.81

0-4

30

Jacksonville

12

28.9

-16.9

0-4

32

 

 

THIS WEEK’S GAMES

We’re not seeing any games that really jump out this week – most of the bottom feeders on the Index (which is where the money is) are either on byes (NYG, PIT, TB) or playing each other (STL vs. JAX).

The biggest Intelligence mismatch this week comes in a game that’s otherwise pretty nondescript: No. 3 Carolina (-2) at No. 21 Arizona.

But a closer look shows that Carolina is getting a little too much credit for their big win over New York, and Arizona isn’t doing that poorly – and neither the Cardinals or coach Bruce Arians in Indy showed signs of duncery in 2012. So we’ll pass on that one.

We’re also passing on Jacksonville +11.5 at St. Louis, since the Rams are -4.79 on the Index. Even though the Jags have been as dumb as they come (-16.9, in a league where you have to be shockingly terrible to achieve even a number of -10), the Rams aren’t much smarter.

And while we noted that the bottom-feeders in this Index are in the 30-35 percent range vs. the spread over the span of a season, no team goes winless vs. the number – ya gotta cover sometimes.

So, our only pick this week is San Francisco (-6.5) at home vs. Houston. The Texans are jumping the Intelligence Index shark this year (-8.54, No. 30), and have been consistently dumb in all four games.

Even though the 49ers are at -4.15, they’re coming off a smart game vs. the Rams and have that extra rest to be smarter. It’s enough for us to put the pick forward as our quest to join the 1972 Dolphins continues.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider with Scout.com breaks down every NFL game against the spread through the prism of our 22 cutting-edge Quality Stats. CHFF Insiders have gone .500 or better ATS in 72 percent of NFL weeks since the start of 2009. CHFF Insiders with Scout.com also get access to betting trends, key prop plays (9-2 in 2013), inside interviews with Vegas bookmakers and detailed team stat profiles. Become a CHFF Insider with Scout.com today. 





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