Wide Receivers:
The good news for the Cardinals is that the Chargers use a 3-4 defense.
In the 3-4 defense almost all available salary cap money goes to the linebackers
and the nose tackle, leaving very little in available funds to put towards the
secondary. While San Diego cornerback Quentin Jammer is a tough, physical
player and was drafted 5th overall in the 2002 draft, he often takes too many
chances, is usually beaten badly by receivers that run crisp routes, and doesn't
particularly excel in man-to-man coverage. Both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald hold a tremendous advantage over Jammer, who is decent enough to have
avoided the "bust" label, but not talented enough to cover Arizona's All-Pro
tandem one on one.
Jammer's battery mate, Drayton Florence, has finally started to become
comfortable with the speed of the pro game in his 4th season. He is not,
however, in the same class as Boldin or Fitzgerald.
Both corners are aggressive and take too many chances. Both are
susceptible to pump fakes and double moves, giving up their fair share of big
plays. And first round pick Antonio Cromartie will also probably have his
hands full with Bryant Johnson, provided the Cardinals work him into their game
plan.
Over the top, safeties Terrence Kiel and Marlon McCree are serviceable at
best. Arizona will have the opportunity to make some big plays in the deep
passing game off of play fakes, double moves, and pump fakes.
However, in order to take advantage of those opportunities, Kurt Warner needs
to be upright. And keeping him upright will be a taunting task for the
Cardinals offensive line.
Offensive Line:
The bad news for the Cardinals is that the Chargers use a 3-4 defense.
In the 3-4 defense almost all available salary cap money goes to the linebackers
and the nose tackle. In the running game, this defense starts with nose
tackle Jamal Williams and just gets scarier from there. Former first round
pick Luis Castillo, and excellent two-way defender, fills one end position.
The underrated Igor Olshansky fills the other. The defensive line's
primary responsibility is to play two-gap defense and occupy blockers so that
the linebackers can fly to the football.
When the Cardinals attempt to run the ball, this means a lot of opportunities
for Randall Godfrey and Donnie Edwards (think the Chargers are glad they didn't
trade him in the off season?). Godfrey and Edwards are good two-way
defenders (especially Edwards, who has three interceptions), but they both made
their bones in the league as run defenders.
Facing an Arizona squad that celebrates every 100 yard rushing performance
from Edgerrin James, this is a match-up that heavily favors San Diego.
It doesn't get any easier in the passing game. Linebackers Shawne Merriman (16 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) and Shaun Phillips (12 sacks, 4 forced
fumbles) are extremely disruptive from the outside. In passing
situations, Arizona would be best served to keep James and tight end Leonard Pope in the backfield as extra blockers. While Arizona's pass protection
has improved over the last six weeks, they haven't faced a combination like
Merriman and Phillips thus far this season.
Even when teams max protect, it seems as though Merriman and Phillips still
get their sacks. It will be a difficult situation for the Cardinals all
day, but they'll need to protect Warner if they are to take advantage of the
mismatches present in the passing game of Boldin and Fitzgerald vs. Jammer and
Florence. Hopefully, Arizona's 7 can block San Diego's 5 for most of the
game.
Hopefully.
Running Backs:
This might actually be a good game to give the ball to Marcel Shipp 5 or 10
times. Even though the Chargers are the league's 8th ranked run defense,
they're not an especially physical group. Between James and Shipp, Shipp
is the more physical back. While it's unlikely that the Cardinals will
have much success, if any, against a very stout front seven for the Chargers,
Shipp might gain more yards and do more damage than James.
Where James might be effective is when he is able to make the first defender
through the hole miss. The Chargers defense is very fast, very young, and
very aggressive. They have been beaten and given up long gains (most
notably to the Chiefs and Broncos) when they have over pursued the play and the
running back has cut back against the grain into an open lane.
The bad news is that James has not had success cutting back in the running
game this year. And the Cardinals seem to lack the talent up front to
successfully run such a scheme.
So, it's going to be a long day for Edge and Shipp.
Game Plan:
The offensive line, Edge, and Pope need to give Warner time to throw.
If they can give him three seconds and a decent pocket to throw from, allowing
him to plant his left foot and let it fly, the Cardinals will have considerable
success throwing the ball against an overmatched San Diego secondary. If
Arizona is unable to pick up the blitz, unable to contain Merriman and Phillips,
and unable to give Warner time to throw, the Chargers will add considerably to
their league leading total of 60 sacks.
On top of the fact that San Diego excels at applying pressure is the small
matter of Warner becoming easily shell-shocked. If the Chargers relentless
pass rush can get to Warner early, he'll have that "deer in the headlights" look
that donned his face for most of the past four seasons. He'll get rid of
the ball too early and to the wrong spot, start fumbling every third play, and
begin to hear footsteps by the midpoint of the first quarter. It cannot be
overstressed how important it is for the Cardinals to protect Warner and give
him a clean pocket to throw from.
Since it's probably a pipe dream to expect Arizona to have success with
cut-backs in the running game, they simply need to stick with it even when it
isn't working. San Diego also happens to have a very explosive offense,
headlined by this year's MVP LaDanian Tomlinson. The best way to keep the
Chargers offense in check is to make sure they're not on the field. The
best way to do that is to run the ball effectively, keep Warner protected,
prevent him from committing too many stupid mistakes, and carve up San Diego's
secondary.
However, since the Cardinals seem to be completely outmanned in this game
(even though Merriman and Phillips might not play due to injuries), it's too
much to hope for a strong outing by the offense. In all likelihood, the
offense will sputter early, the defense will give up too many big plays to
Tomlinson and the potent Chargers offense, San Diego will stake themselves to a
big early lead, and the crowd and the pass rush will take over.
But, I said that about the Chicago game.